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Nico Ferrand v Daniel Stuart (Wed 21 Jan 2015)

Match won by Nico Ferrand. Result: 7-15,15-11,15-6,15-7.

Starting level for Nico Ferrand: 623, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Daniel Stuart: 400, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Nico Ferrand to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Daniel Stuart.

Nico Ferrand won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nico Ferrand played 28% better than Daniel Stuart in this match.

As Nico Ferrand has played below his allowed range at 529, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Nico Ferrand would normally have been playing at level 588 (based on typical behaviour), Daniel Stuart played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand changes to -2.8% and Daniel Stuart changes to +4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand becomes -2.8% and for Daniel Stuart becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'West Scotland League 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Nico Ferrand is -2.1% and for Daniel Stuart is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nico Ferrand: 77%, Daniel Stuart: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nico Ferrand: 70%, Daniel Stuart: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nico Ferrand: 609, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Daniel Stuart: 411, level confidence: 78%.