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Nico Ferrand v Damien Cameron (Wed 28 Jan 2015)

Match won by Nico Ferrand. Result: 16-14,8-15,15-9,9-15,15-7.

Starting level for Nico Ferrand: 634, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Damien Cameron: 239, level confidence: 60%.
Nico Ferrand to win as he is currently playing 165% better than Damien Cameron.

Nico Ferrand won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nico Ferrand played 9% better than Damien Cameron in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nico Ferrand was taking it easy by anything up to 20%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 379 and 634 without affecting his level.

As Nico Ferrand has played below his allowed range at 314, his level reduction is 21% before damping. On the assumption that Nico Ferrand would normally have been playing at level 504 (based on typical behaviour), Damien Cameron played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 39%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand changes to -10.7% and Damien Cameron changes to +23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand becomes -6.8% and for Damien Cameron becomes +12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'West Scotland League 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Nico Ferrand is -5% and for Damien Cameron is +9.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nico Ferrand: 82%, Damien Cameron: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nico Ferrand: 53%, Damien Cameron: 50%.

A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nico Ferrand: 618, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Damien Cameron: 261, level confidence: 50%.