Nico Ferrand v Cameron Moss (Wed 04 Feb 2015)
Match won by Nico Ferrand. Result: 12-15,15-9,15-12,17-15.
Starting level for
Nico Ferrand:
643, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for
Cameron Moss:
569, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Nico Ferrand to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Cameron Moss.
Nico Ferrand won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nico Ferrand played
22% better than Cameron Moss in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nico Ferrand actually played at a level of
668 and Cameron Moss at a level of
548. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand changes to +3.6% and Cameron Moss changes to -2.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand becomes +3.3% and for Cameron Moss becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'West Scotland League 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Nico Ferrand is +2.5% and for Cameron Moss is -1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nico Ferrand: 71%, Cameron Moss: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nico Ferrand: 69%, Cameron Moss: 88%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nico Ferrand:
658, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Cameron Moss:
559, level confidence: 88%.