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Alistair Mackenzie v Nico Ferrand (Wed 11 Feb 2015)

Match won by Nico Ferrand. Result: 13-15,12-15,14-16.

Starting level for Alistair Mackenzie: 1,235, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nico Ferrand: 994, level confidence: 70%.
Alistair Mackenzie to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Nico Ferrand.

Nico Ferrand won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nico Ferrand played 30% better than Alistair Mackenzie in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nico Ferrand actually played at a level of 1,264 and Alistair Mackenzie at a level of 971. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand changes to +24% and Alistair Mackenzie changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand becomes +13% and for Alistair Mackenzie becomes -10%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'West Scotland League 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Nico Ferrand is +9.8% and for Alistair Mackenzie is -7.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alistair Mackenzie is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nico Ferrand: 84%, Alistair Mackenzie: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nico Ferrand: 66%, Alistair Mackenzie: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alistair Mackenzie: 1,190, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Nico Ferrand: 1,090, level confidence: 66%.