Nico Ferrand v Jonny McDonald (Wed 18 Feb 2015)
Match won by Nico Ferrand. Result: 15-8,11-15,15-7,15-8.
Starting level for
Nico Ferrand:
681, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Jonny McDonald:
586, level confidence: 52%.
Nico Ferrand to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Jonny McDonald.
Nico Ferrand won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nico Ferrand played
32% better than Jonny McDonald in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nico Ferrand actually played at a level of
727 and Jonny McDonald at a level of
549. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand changes to +5.2% and Jonny McDonald changes to -6.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand becomes +4.1% and for Jonny McDonald becomes -4.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'West Scotland League 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Nico Ferrand is +3.1% and for Jonny McDonald is -3.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nico Ferrand: 79%, Jonny McDonald: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nico Ferrand: 74%, Jonny McDonald: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nico Ferrand:
701, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Jonny McDonald:
573, level confidence: 68%.