Nico Ferrand v Piort Prowoski (Wed 25 Feb 2015)
Match won by Piort Prowoski. Result: 15-12,17-19,12-15,16-14,6-15.
Starting level for
Nico Ferrand:
708, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Piort Prowoski:
689, level confidence: 60%.
Nico Ferrand to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Piort Prowoski.
Piort Prowoski won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Piort Prowoski played
11% better than Nico Ferrand in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Piort Prowoski actually played at a level of
736 and Nico Ferrand at a level of
663. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Piort Prowoski changes to +6.7% and Nico Ferrand changes to -5.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Piort Prowoski becomes +4.8% and for Nico Ferrand becomes -4.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'West Scotland League 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Piort Prowoski is +3.6% and for Nico Ferrand is -3.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Piort Prowoski: 77%, Nico Ferrand: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Piort Prowoski: 72%, Nico Ferrand: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nico Ferrand:
685, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Piort Prowoski:
713, level confidence: 72%.