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Nico Ferrand v Katy Hodgson (Wed 11 Mar 2015)

Match won by Nico Ferrand. Result: 13-15,15-9,15-11,15-7.

Starting level for Nico Ferrand: 731, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Katy Hodgson: 456, level confidence: 65%.
Nico Ferrand to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Katy Hodgson.

Nico Ferrand won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nico Ferrand played 29% better than Katy Hodgson in this match.

As Nico Ferrand has played below his allowed range at 611, his level reduction is 3.5% before damping. On the assumption that Nico Ferrand would normally have been playing at level 685 (based on typical behaviour), Katy Hodgson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand changes to -2.2% and Katy Hodgson changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand becomes -2.2% and for Katy Hodgson becomes +4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'West Scotland League 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Nico Ferrand is -1.7% and for Katy Hodgson is +3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nico Ferrand: 89%, Katy Hodgson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nico Ferrand: 80%, Katy Hodgson: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nico Ferrand: 718, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Katy Hodgson: 471, level confidence: 72%.