Nico Ferrand v Alastair Brash (Wed 18 Mar 2015)
Match won by Nico Ferrand. Result: 15-7,15-6,15-5.
Starting level for
Nico Ferrand:
692, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Alastair Brash:
392, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Nico Ferrand to win as he is currently playing
77% better than Alastair Brash.
Nico Ferrand won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nico Ferrand played
150% better than Alastair Brash in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nico Ferrand actually played at a level of
824 and Alastair Brash at a level of
329. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand changes to +14% and Alastair Brash changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nico Ferrand becomes +8.4% and for Alastair Brash becomes -8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'West Scotland League 2014/2015' so the adjustment for Nico Ferrand is +6.3% and for Alastair Brash is -5.9%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alastair Brash is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nico Ferrand: 89%, Alastair Brash: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nico Ferrand: 74%, Alastair Brash: 77%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nico Ferrand:
734, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Alastair Brash:
373, level confidence: 77%.