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Ian Boardman v Michael Broadbent (Tue 08 Sep 2009)

Match won by Ian Boardman. Result: 10-15,15-12,15-4,15-12.

Starting level for Ian Boardman: 1,556, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,045, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Ian Boardman to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Michael Broadbent.

Ian Boardman won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Boardman played 26% better than Michael Broadbent in this match.

As Ian Boardman has played below his allowed range at 1,353, his level reduction is 2.8% before damping. On the assumption that Ian Boardman would normally have been playing at level 1,483 (based on typical behaviour), Michael Broadbent played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Boardman changes to -2.3% and Michael Broadbent changes to +2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Boardman becomes -1.9% and for Michael Broadbent becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2009' so the adjustment for Ian Boardman is -1.2% and for Michael Broadbent is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Boardman: 66%, Michael Broadbent: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Boardman: 61%, Michael Broadbent: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Boardman: 1,541, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,066, level confidence: 82%.