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Mike Thorpe v Kenny Holden (Thu 12 Mar 2009)

Match won by Kenny Holden. Result: 4-15,0-15,5-15.

Starting level for Mike Thorpe: 969, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kenny Holden: 920, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Mike Thorpe to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Kenny Holden.

Kenny Holden won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 400% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kenny Holden played 400% better than Mike Thorpe in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kenny Holden actually played at a level of 2,111 and Mike Thorpe at a level of 422. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 129% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kenny Holden changes to +125% and Mike Thorpe changes to -116%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kenny Holden becomes +52.1% and for Mike Thorpe becomes -49%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Kenny Holden is +39% and for Mike Thorpe is -33%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Kenny Holden is limited to +10% and Mike Thorpe is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kenny Holden: 84%, Mike Thorpe: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kenny Holden: 37%, Mike Thorpe: 37%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Thorpe: 921, level confidence: 37%.
Final level for Kenny Holden: 1,010, level confidence: 37%.