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Paul Drakes v Alan Tierney (Tue 15 Sep 2009)

Match won by Paul Drakes. Result: 15-13,11-15,8-15,15-9,15-13.

Starting level for Paul Drakes: 921, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Alan Tierney: 1,228, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Alan Tierney to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Paul Drakes.

Paul Drakes won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Drakes played 7% better than Alan Tierney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Drakes actually played at a level of 1,101 and Alan Tierney at a level of 1,028. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Drakes changes to +17% and Alan Tierney changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Drakes becomes +9.6% and for Alan Tierney becomes -8.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2009' so the adjustment for Paul Drakes is +6.3% and for Alan Tierney is -5.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Drakes: 83%, Alan Tierney: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Drakes: 69%, Alan Tierney: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Drakes: 981, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Alan Tierney: 1,172, level confidence: 72%.