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Martin White v Neil Waller (Thu 12 Mar 2009)

Match won by Neil Waller. Result: 6-11,7-11,7-11.

Starting level for Martin White: 1,479, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Neil Waller: 3,785, level confidence: 54%.
Neil Waller to win as he is currently playing 156% better than Martin White.

Neil Waller won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Waller played 65% better than Martin White in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Neil Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,333 and 3,785 without affecting his level.

In this case, Neil Waller played at level 2,729 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Neil Waller would normally have been playing at level 3,052 (based on typical behaviour), Martin White played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Waller changes to 0% and Martin White changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Waller becomes 0% and for Martin White becomes +3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Neil Waller is 0% and for Martin White is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Waller: 73%, Martin White: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Waller: 59%, Martin White: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin White: 1,516, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Neil Waller: 3,779, level confidence: 59%.