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Neil Newbery v Julian Craxton (Wed 18 Mar 2009)

Match won by Julian Craxton. Result: 13-15,13-15,15-13,15-13,13-15.

Starting level for Neil Newbery: 1,606, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Julian Craxton: 1,761, level confidence: 63%.
Julian Craxton to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Neil Newbery.

Julian Craxton won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Craxton played 8% better than Neil Newbery in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Craxton actually played at a level of 1,750 and Neil Newbery at a level of 1,617. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Craxton changes to -0.6% and Neil Newbery changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Craxton becomes -0.5% and for Neil Newbery becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Julian Craxton is -0.4% and for Neil Newbery is +0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Craxton: 79%, Neil Newbery: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Craxton: 79%, Neil Newbery: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Newbery: 1,609, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Julian Craxton: 1,752, level confidence: 79%.