SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Paul Vukovich v Jack Fowler (Tue 31 Mar 2009)

Match won by Paul Vukovich. Result: 9-11,11-2,7-11,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Paul Vukovich: 1,192, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Jack Fowler: 1,454, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Jack Fowler to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Paul Vukovich.

Paul Vukovich won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Vukovich played 15% better than Jack Fowler in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Vukovich actually played at a level of 1,410 and Jack Fowler at a level of 1,229. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Vukovich changes to +16% and Jack Fowler changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Vukovich becomes +8.8% and for Jack Fowler becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Paul Vukovich is +6.6% and for Jack Fowler is -4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Vukovich: 71%, Jack Fowler: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Vukovich: 60%, Jack Fowler: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Vukovich: 1,269, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Jack Fowler: 1,394, level confidence: 75%.