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Gavin Noffki v Dave Cooper (Tue 07 Apr 2009)

Match won by Dave Cooper. Result: 8-11,11-5,11-2,4-11,9-11.

Starting level for Gavin Noffki: 1,519, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Dave Cooper: 1,645, level confidence: 65%.
Dave Cooper to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Gavin Noffki.

Dave Cooper won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Cooper played 6% better than Gavin Noffki in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Cooper actually played at a level of 1,626 and Gavin Noffki at a level of 1,537. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Cooper changes to -1.1% and Gavin Noffki changes to +1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Cooper becomes -0.9% and for Gavin Noffki becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Dave Cooper is -0.7% and for Gavin Noffki is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Cooper: 81%, Gavin Noffki: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Cooper: 80%, Gavin Noffki: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin Noffki: 1,527, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Dave Cooper: 1,631, level confidence: 80%.