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Rob McGuchan v Simon Maxen (Wed 16 Jun 2010)

Match won by Rob McGuchan. Result: 15-8,18-16,11-15,13-15,15-10.

Starting level for Rob McGuchan: 1,344, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Simon Maxen: 1,779, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Simon Maxen to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Rob McGuchan.

Rob McGuchan won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob McGuchan played 11% better than Simon Maxen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob McGuchan actually played at a level of 1,626 and Simon Maxen at a level of 1,470. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob McGuchan changes to +18% and Simon Maxen changes to -9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob McGuchan becomes +9% and for Simon Maxen becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2010' so the adjustment for Rob McGuchan is +5.9% and for Simon Maxen is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob McGuchan: 65%, Simon Maxen: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob McGuchan: 53%, Simon Maxen: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob McGuchan: 1,421, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Simon Maxen: 1,722, level confidence: 71%.