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Jed Whelan v James Clyne (Tue 03 Nov 2009)

Match won by James Clyne. Result: 12-15,15-13,11-15,6-15.

Starting level for Jed Whelan: 1,559, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for James Clyne: 2,085, level confidence: 50%.
James Clyne to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Jed Whelan.

James Clyne won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Clyne played 27% better than Jed Whelan in this match.

In this case, James Clyne played at level 2,006 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that James Clyne would normally have been playing at level 2,029 (based on typical behaviour), Jed Whelan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Clyne changes to 0% and Jed Whelan changes to +0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Clyne becomes 0% and for Jed Whelan becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for James Clyne is 0% and for Jed Whelan is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Clyne: 70%, Jed Whelan: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Clyne: 69%, Jed Whelan: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jed Whelan: 1,571, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for James Clyne: 2,090, level confidence: 69%.