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Max North v John Shaw (Wed 08 Sep 2010)

Match won by Max North. Result: 15-4,15-7,15-6.

Starting level for Max North: 2,171, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for John Shaw: 1,080, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Max North to win as he is currently playing 101% better than John Shaw.

Max North won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 165% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max North played 165% better than John Shaw in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Max North actually played at a level of 2,491 and John Shaw at a level of 941. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.2% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max North changes to +10.2% and John Shaw changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max North becomes +4.9% and for John Shaw becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2010' so the adjustment for Max North is +3.2% and for John Shaw is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max North: 87%, John Shaw: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max North: 76%, John Shaw: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max North: 2,237, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for John Shaw: 1,040, level confidence: 80%.