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Daren Olley v John Willows (Tue 01 Dec 2009)

Match won by Daren Olley. Result: 13-15,15-6,15-6,15-6.

Starting level for Daren Olley: 1,043, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for John Willows: 726, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Daren Olley to win as he is currently playing 44% better than John Willows.

Daren Olley won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daren Olley played 42% better than John Willows in this match.

In this case, Daren Olley played at level 1,029 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, John Willows is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daren Olley: 81%, John Willows: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daren Olley: 81%, John Willows: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daren Olley: 1,045, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for John Willows: 727, level confidence: 87%.