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Rob Twilley v Chris Ginn (Wed 09 Dec 2009)

Match won by Rob Twilley. Result: 8-15,15-13,15-12,15-11.

Starting level for Rob Twilley: 1,278, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Ginn: 1,432, level confidence: 60%.
Chris Ginn to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Rob Twilley.

Rob Twilley won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Twilley played 18% better than Chris Ginn in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Twilley actually played at a level of 1,470 and Chris Ginn at a level of 1,245. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Twilley changes to +12% and Chris Ginn changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Twilley becomes +6.7% and for Chris Ginn becomes -7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Rob Twilley is +5% and for Chris Ginn is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Twilley: 84%, Chris Ginn: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Twilley: 73%, Chris Ginn: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rob Twilley: 1,341, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Chris Ginn: 1,358, level confidence: 67%.