SquashLevels calculations
Scott Gregory v Gavin McClure (Thu 10 Dec 2009)
Match won by Scott Gregory. Result: 15-10,15-4,15-7.
Starting level for
Scott Gregory:
1,527, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Gavin McClure:
664, level confidence: 39%.
Scott Gregory to win as he is currently playing
130% better than Gavin McClure.
Scott Gregory won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Gregory played
114% better than Gavin McClure in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Scott Gregory was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,026 and 1,527 without affecting his level.
In this case, Scott Gregory played at level 1,423 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Gavin McClure is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Gregory: 84%, Gavin McClure: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Gregory: 81%, Gavin McClure: 60%.
Final level for Scott Gregory:
1,527, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Gavin McClure:
664, level confidence: 60%.