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Chris Stanley v Philip Waller (Thu 14 Jul 2011)

Match won by Philip Waller. Result: 7-15,7-15,13-15.

Starting level for Chris Stanley: 3,323, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Philip Waller: 3,993, level confidence: 51%.
Philip Waller to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Chris Stanley.

Philip Waller won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Philip Waller played 67% better than Chris Stanley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Philip Waller actually played at a level of 4,703 and Chris Stanley at a level of 2,822. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Philip Waller changes to +16% and Chris Stanley changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Philip Waller becomes +5.7% and for Chris Stanley becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Philip Waller is +3.7% and for Chris Stanley is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Philip Waller: 71%, Chris Stanley: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Philip Waller: 61%, Chris Stanley: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Stanley: 3,211, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Philip Waller: 4,136, level confidence: 61%.