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Steve Leverington v Matt Bevan (Tue 19 Jan 2010)

Match won by Matt Bevan. Result: 15-13,15-13,9-15,12-15,13-15.

Starting level for Steve Leverington: 1,246, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Matt Bevan: 1,284, level confidence: 66%.
Matt Bevan to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Steve Leverington.

Matt Bevan won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Bevan played 10% better than Steve Leverington in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Bevan actually played at a level of 1,328 and Steve Leverington at a level of 1,205. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Bevan changes to +3.2% and Steve Leverington changes to -3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Bevan becomes +2.8% and for Steve Leverington becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Matt Bevan is +2.1% and for Steve Leverington is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Bevan: 81%, Steve Leverington: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Bevan: 78%, Steve Leverington: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Leverington: 1,217, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Matt Bevan: 1,309, level confidence: 78%.