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Dave Relf v Richard Lewis (Tue 26 Jul 2011)

Match won by Dave Relf. Result: 13-15,14-16,15-13,16-14,15-12.

Starting level for Dave Relf: 876, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Richard Lewis: 971, level confidence: 57%.
Richard Lewis to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Dave Relf.

Dave Relf won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Relf played 9% better than Richard Lewis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Relf actually played at a level of 961 and Richard Lewis at a level of 885. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Relf changes to +9.2% and Richard Lewis changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Relf becomes +6.1% and for Richard Lewis becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Dave Relf is +3.9% and for Richard Lewis is -3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Relf: 71%, Richard Lewis: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Relf: 64%, Richard Lewis: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Relf: 909, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Richard Lewis: 937, level confidence: 69%.