SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

James Armstrong v Stephen Lloyd (Thu 28 Jul 2011)

Match won by Stephen Lloyd. Result: 10-15,3-15,6-15.

Starting level for James Armstrong: 1,586, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,668, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Stephen Lloyd to win as he is currently playing 68% better than James Armstrong.

Stephen Lloyd won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Lloyd played 137% better than James Armstrong in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Lloyd actually played at a level of 3,166 and James Armstrong at a level of 1,337. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd changes to +11% and James Armstrong changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd becomes +4.8% and for James Armstrong becomes -7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd is +3.1% and for James Armstrong is -4.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Lloyd: 85%, James Armstrong: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Lloyd: 72%, James Armstrong: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Armstrong: 1,516, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,747, level confidence: 72%.