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Jim Hilton v Keith Warman (Thu 21 Jan 2010)

Match won by Jim Hilton. Result: 15-7,15-5,15-5.

Starting level for Jim Hilton: 2,811, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Keith Warman: 1,397, level confidence: 52%.
Jim Hilton to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Keith Warman.

Jim Hilton won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 165% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jim Hilton played 165% better than Keith Warman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jim Hilton actually played at a level of 3,224 and Keith Warman at a level of 1,218. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jim Hilton changes to +8% and Keith Warman changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jim Hilton becomes +3.8% and for Keith Warman becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Jim Hilton is +2.8% and for Keith Warman is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jim Hilton: 81%, Keith Warman: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jim Hilton: 70%, Keith Warman: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jim Hilton: 2,886, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Keith Warman: 1,338, level confidence: 63%.