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Richard Lewis v Martin Miller (Tue 02 Aug 2011)

Match won by Richard Lewis. Result: 15-2,15-11,15-8.

Starting level for Richard Lewis: 937, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Martin Miller: 687, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Richard Lewis to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Martin Miller.

Richard Lewis won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Lewis played 114% better than Martin Miller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Lewis actually played at a level of 1,174 and Martin Miller at a level of 548. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Lewis changes to +21% and Martin Miller changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Lewis becomes +11.8% and for Martin Miller becomes -9.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Richard Lewis is +7.7% and for Martin Miller is -6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Martin Miller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Lewis: 82%, Martin Miller: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Lewis: 65%, Martin Miller: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Lewis: 1,009, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Martin Miller: 655, level confidence: 73%.