Tony Revell v Gavin Bone (Tue 09 Aug 2011)
Match won by Gavin Bone. Result: 9-15,11-15,13-15.
Starting level for
Tony Revell:
813, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Gavin Bone:
1,051, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Gavin Bone to win as he is currently playing
29% better than Tony Revell.
Gavin Bone won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gavin Bone played
43% better than Tony Revell in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gavin Bone actually played at a level of
1,104 and Tony Revell at a level of
774. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 4.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gavin Bone changes to +4.1% and Tony Revell changes to -4.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gavin Bone becomes +3.5% and for Tony Revell becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Gavin Bone is +2.3% and for Tony Revell is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gavin Bone: 84%, Tony Revell: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gavin Bone: 80%, Tony Revell: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tony Revell:
796, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Gavin Bone:
1,074, level confidence: 80%.