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Martin Miller v Niel Roake (Tue 09 Aug 2011)

Match won by Niel Roake. Result: 6-15,5-15,11-15.

Starting level for Martin Miller: 681, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Niel Roake: 1,363, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Niel Roake to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Martin Miller.

Niel Roake won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Niel Roake played 105% better than Martin Miller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Niel Roake actually played at a level of 1,378 and Martin Miller at a level of 674. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Niel Roake changes to +0.6% and Martin Miller changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Niel Roake becomes +0.6% and for Martin Miller becomes -0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Niel Roake is +0.4% and for Martin Miller is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Niel Roake: 92%, Martin Miller: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Niel Roake: 91%, Martin Miller: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Miller: 677, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Niel Roake: 1,367, level confidence: 91%.