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Dan Collison v Patrick Stewart (Wed 10 Aug 2011)

Match won by Dan Collison. Result: 15-7,10-15,15-7,17-15.

Starting level for Dan Collison: 1,144, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Stewart: 1,101, level confidence: 23%.
Dan Collison to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Patrick Stewart.

Dan Collison won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan Collison played 27% better than Patrick Stewart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan Collison actually played at a level of 1,262 and Patrick Stewart at a level of 998. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan Collison changes to +3.3% and Patrick Stewart changes to -10.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan Collison becomes +3% and for Patrick Stewart becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Dan Collison is +1.9% and for Patrick Stewart is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan Collison: 84%, Patrick Stewart: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan Collison: 76%, Patrick Stewart: 43%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Collison: 1,166, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Patrick Stewart: 1,058, level confidence: 43%.