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Joshua Ryan v Mark Blake (Thu 11 Aug 2011)

Match won by Joshua Ryan. Result: 15-6,15-11,15-9.

Starting level for Joshua Ryan: 2,752, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Blake: 1,608, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Joshua Ryan to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Mark Blake.

Joshua Ryan won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Ryan played 73% better than Mark Blake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Ryan actually played at a level of 2,767 and Mark Blake at a level of 1,599. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Ryan changes to +0.4% and Mark Blake changes to -0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Ryan becomes +0.3% and for Mark Blake becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Joshua Ryan is 0% and for Mark Blake is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Ryan: 85%, Mark Blake: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Ryan: 85%, Mark Blake: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Ryan: 2,755, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Mark Blake: 1,603, level confidence: 84%.