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Anthony Clifford v Kevin Hall (Wed 17 Aug 2011)

Match won by Kevin Hall. Result: 12-15,15-6,15-11,8-15,12-15.

Starting level for Anthony Clifford: 1,185, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Kevin Hall: 1,609, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Kevin Hall to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Anthony Clifford.

Kevin Hall won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kevin Hall played 8% better than Anthony Clifford in this match.

As Kevin Hall has played below his allowed range at 1,382, his level reduction is 8.5% before damping. On the assumption that Kevin Hall would normally have been playing at level 1,561 (based on typical behaviour), Anthony Clifford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.2% and 9.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kevin Hall changes to -6.9% and Anthony Clifford changes to +9.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kevin Hall becomes -4.1% and for Anthony Clifford becomes +5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Kevin Hall is -2.6% and for Anthony Clifford is +3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kevin Hall: 87%, Anthony Clifford: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kevin Hall: 77%, Anthony Clifford: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Clifford: 1,226, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Kevin Hall: 1,565, level confidence: 77%.