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Graeme Beveridge v Jed Whelan (Wed 17 Aug 2011)

Match won by Graeme Beveridge. Result: 15-4,15-8,15-13.

Starting level for Graeme Beveridge: 3,345, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jed Whelan: 1,931, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Graeme Beveridge to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Jed Whelan.

Graeme Beveridge won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Graeme Beveridge played 80% better than Jed Whelan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Graeme Beveridge actually played at a level of 3,410 and Jed Whelan at a level of 1,894. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Graeme Beveridge changes to +1.5% and Jed Whelan changes to -1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Graeme Beveridge becomes +1% and for Jed Whelan becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Graeme Beveridge is +0.6% and for Jed Whelan is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Graeme Beveridge: 84%, Jed Whelan: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Graeme Beveridge: 82%, Jed Whelan: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Graeme Beveridge: 3,361, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Jed Whelan: 1,914, level confidence: 83%.