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Eamonn Price v Nathan Derrick (Thu 18 Aug 2011)

Match won by Eamonn Price. Result: 15-12,19-17,15-9.

Starting level for Eamonn Price: 5,370, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Derrick: 2,919, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Eamonn Price to win as he is currently playing 84% better than Nathan Derrick.

Eamonn Price won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eamonn Price played 38% better than Nathan Derrick in this match.

As Eamonn Price has played below his allowed range at 4,115, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Eamonn Price would normally have been playing at level 4,846 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Derrick played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 7.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eamonn Price changes to -1.8% and Nathan Derrick changes to +6.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eamonn Price becomes -1.1% and for Nathan Derrick becomes +3.3%.

Given Eamonn Price's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2011' so the adjustment for Eamonn Price is -0.7% and for Nathan Derrick is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eamonn Price: 88%, Nathan Derrick: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eamonn Price: 76%, Nathan Derrick: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Eamonn Price: 5,327, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Nathan Derrick: 2,978, level confidence: 77%.