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Declan Osborne v Mark Blake (Thu 04 Feb 2010)

Match won by Declan Osborne. Result: 15-5,15-4,16-14.

Starting level for Declan Osborne: 1,829, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Mark Blake: 1,892, level confidence: 64%.
Mark Blake to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Declan Osborne.

Declan Osborne won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan Osborne played 100% better than Mark Blake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan Osborne actually played at a level of 2,631 and Mark Blake at a level of 1,315. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan Osborne changes to +42% and Mark Blake changes to -43%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan Osborne becomes +16.2% and for Mark Blake becomes -16%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Declan Osborne is +12% and for Mark Blake is -12%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Declan Osborne is limited to +10% and Mark Blake is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan Osborne: 81%, Mark Blake: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan Osborne: 56%, Mark Blake: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan Osborne: 2,009, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Mark Blake: 1,717, level confidence: 56%.