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Tim Bloomer v Fred Cooke (Thu 04 Feb 2010)

Match won by Fred Cooke. Result: 9-15,15-13,14-16,9-15.

Starting level for Tim Bloomer: 1,862, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Fred Cooke: 1,709, level confidence: 38%.
Tim Bloomer to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Fred Cooke.

Fred Cooke won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fred Cooke played 25% better than Tim Bloomer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fred Cooke actually played at a level of 1,996 and Tim Bloomer at a level of 1,594. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fred Cooke changes to +16% and Tim Bloomer changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fred Cooke becomes +7.5% and for Tim Bloomer becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Fred Cooke is +5.6% and for Tim Bloomer is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fred Cooke: 62%, Tim Bloomer: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fred Cooke: 53%, Tim Bloomer: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Bloomer: 1,806, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Fred Cooke: 1,802, level confidence: 53%.