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Manny Hopkins v Alan Howell (Wed 10 Feb 2010)

Match won by Alan Howell. Result: 10-15,15-11,7-15,18-16,6-15.

Starting level for Manny Hopkins: 1,255, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Alan Howell: 1,500, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Alan Howell to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Manny Hopkins.

Alan Howell won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Howell played 15% better than Manny Hopkins in this match.

As Alan Howell has played below his allowed range at 1,453, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Alan Howell would normally have been playing at level 1,485 (based on typical behaviour), Manny Hopkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Howell changes to -0.9% and Manny Hopkins changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Howell becomes -0.7% and for Manny Hopkins becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Alan Howell is -0.5% and for Manny Hopkins is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Howell: 86%, Manny Hopkins: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Howell: 84%, Manny Hopkins: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Manny Hopkins: 1,266, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Alan Howell: 1,490, level confidence: 84%.