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Justin Turnpenny v Nick Henderson (Tue 01 May 2012)

Match won by Nick Henderson. Result: 2-15,10-15,15-6,13-15.

Starting level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,209, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Nick Henderson: 1,579, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Nick Henderson to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Justin Turnpenny.

Nick Henderson won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Henderson played 26% better than Justin Turnpenny in this match.

In this case, Nick Henderson played at level 1,532 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick Henderson would normally have been playing at level 1,543 (based on typical behaviour), Justin Turnpenny played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Henderson changes to 0% and Justin Turnpenny changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Henderson becomes 0% and for Justin Turnpenny becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Nick Henderson is 0% and for Justin Turnpenny is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Henderson: 84%, Justin Turnpenny: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Henderson: 83%, Justin Turnpenny: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,212, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Nick Henderson: 1,577, level confidence: 83%.