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Robert Brooks v Chris Lynam (Wed 10 Feb 2010)

Match won by Chris Lynam. Result: 15-12,13-15,10-15,13-15.

Starting level for Robert Brooks: 1,816, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Chris Lynam: 1,721, level confidence: 58%.
Robert Brooks to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Chris Lynam.

Chris Lynam won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Lynam played 21% better than Robert Brooks in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Lynam actually played at a level of 1,942 and Robert Brooks at a level of 1,610. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Lynam changes to +12% and Robert Brooks changes to -10.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Lynam becomes +6.1% and for Robert Brooks becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Chris Lynam is +4.6% and for Robert Brooks is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Lynam: 76%, Robert Brooks: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Lynam: 68%, Robert Brooks: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Brooks: 1,744, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Chris Lynam: 1,797, level confidence: 68%.