James Cooper v Jeff Hobden (Wed 02 May 2012)
Match won by Jeff Hobden. Result: 12-15,8-15,17-15,8-15.
Starting level for
James Cooper:
1,264, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for
Jeff Hobden:
1,544, level confidence: 68%.
Jeff Hobden to win as he is currently playing
22% better than James Cooper.
Jeff Hobden won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeff Hobden played
28% better than James Cooper in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeff Hobden actually played at a level of
1,579 and James Cooper at a level of
1,236. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden changes to +1.2% and James Cooper changes to -2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden becomes +1% and for James Cooper becomes -1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Jeff Hobden is +0.7% and for James Cooper is -1.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeff Hobden: 82%, James Cooper: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeff Hobden: 80%, James Cooper: 63%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for James Cooper:
1,247, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Jeff Hobden:
1,552, level confidence: 80%.