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Paul Giffen v John Chesters (Wed 02 May 2012)

Match won by Paul Giffen. Result: 16-14,15-12,15-12.

Starting level for Paul Giffen: 1,309, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for John Chesters: 1,065, level confidence: 65%.
Paul Giffen to win as he is currently playing 23% better than John Chesters.

Paul Giffen won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Giffen played 32% better than John Chesters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Giffen actually played at a level of 1,358 and John Chesters at a level of 1,027. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Giffen changes to +3.4% and John Chesters changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Giffen becomes +2.8% and for John Chesters becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Giffen is +1.8% and for John Chesters is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Giffen: 81%, John Chesters: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Giffen: 78%, John Chesters: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Giffen: 1,331, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for John Chesters: 1,042, level confidence: 78%.