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Chris Marshall v Sid Newbon (Wed 02 May 2012)

Match won by Chris Marshall. Result: 15-3,15-13,15-2.

Starting level for Chris Marshall: 1,571, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sid Newbon: 1,032, level confidence: 68%.
Chris Marshall to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Sid Newbon.

Chris Marshall won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 150% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Marshall played 150% better than Sid Newbon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Marshall actually played at a level of 2,013 and Sid Newbon at a level of 805. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Marshall changes to +20% and Sid Newbon changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Marshall becomes +9.2% and for Sid Newbon becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Chris Marshall is +6% and for Sid Newbon is -7.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Marshall: 87%, Sid Newbon: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Marshall: 68%, Sid Newbon: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Marshall: 1,663, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Sid Newbon: 958, level confidence: 64%.