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Cesar Ramirez-Molina v Dan White (Thu 11 Feb 2010)

Match won by Dan White. Result: 5-15,15-12,16-18,12-15.

Starting level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,120, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Dan White: 1,378, level confidence: 10%.
Dan White to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina.

Dan White won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dan White played 25% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dan White actually played at a level of 1,389 and Cesar Ramirez-Molina at a level of 1,111. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dan White changes to +0.7% and Cesar Ramirez-Molina changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dan White becomes +0.6% and for Cesar Ramirez-Molina becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Dan White is +0.5% and for Cesar Ramirez-Molina is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dan White: 32%, Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dan White: 31%, Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,118, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Dan White: 1,382, level confidence: 31%.