SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

John McFarlane v Marvin Rust (Thu 03 May 2012)

Match won by John McFarlane. Result: 15-8,15-6,9-15,15-5.

Starting level for John McFarlane: 2,861, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Marvin Rust: 2,365, level confidence: 57%.
John McFarlane to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Marvin Rust.

John McFarlane won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John McFarlane played 36% better than Marvin Rust in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John McFarlane actually played at a level of 3,035 and Marvin Rust at a level of 2,229. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John McFarlane changes to +5.1% and Marvin Rust changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John McFarlane becomes +2.7% and for Marvin Rust becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for John McFarlane is +1.8% and for Marvin Rust is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John McFarlane: 79%, Marvin Rust: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John McFarlane: 75%, Marvin Rust: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John McFarlane: 2,908, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Marvin Rust: 2,315, level confidence: 71%.