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Brad Whitbread v Daniel Wolfson (Tue 08 May 2012)

Match won by Brad Whitbread. Result: 15-11,12-15,15-7,15-11.

Starting level for Brad Whitbread: 2,728, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,864, level confidence: 60%.
Brad Whitbread to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Daniel Wolfson.

Brad Whitbread won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Brad Whitbread played 27% better than Daniel Wolfson in this match.

As Brad Whitbread has played below his allowed range at 2,408, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Brad Whitbread would normally have been playing at level 2,610 (based on typical behaviour), Daniel Wolfson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Brad Whitbread changes to -1.7% and Daniel Wolfson changes to +4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Brad Whitbread becomes -1.2% and for Daniel Wolfson becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Brad Whitbread is -0.8% and for Daniel Wolfson is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Brad Whitbread: 76%, Daniel Wolfson: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Brad Whitbread: 70%, Daniel Wolfson: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Brad Whitbread: 2,703, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,895, level confidence: 72%.