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Martin Miller v Daren Olley (Tue 08 May 2012)

Match won by Daren Olley. Result: 7-15,11-15,10-15.

Starting level for Martin Miller: 612, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Daren Olley: 949, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Daren Olley to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Martin Miller.

Daren Olley won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daren Olley played 61% better than Martin Miller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daren Olley actually played at a level of 966 and Martin Miller at a level of 601. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daren Olley changes to +1.2% and Martin Miller changes to -1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daren Olley becomes +1.2% and for Martin Miller becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Daren Olley is +0.8% and for Martin Miller is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daren Olley: 87%, Martin Miller: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daren Olley: 85%, Martin Miller: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Miller: 605, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Daren Olley: 955, level confidence: 85%.