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Gus Lyseights v Robin Aris (Thu 11 Feb 2010)

Match won by Robin Aris. Result: 11-15,15-3,15-4,14-16,6-15.

Starting level for Gus Lyseights: 1,582, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Robin Aris: 1,282, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Gus Lyseights to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Robin Aris.

Robin Aris won 60% of the games and 46% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robin Aris played 4% better than Gus Lyseights in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robin Aris actually played at a level of 1,454 and Gus Lyseights at a level of 1,395. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robin Aris changes to +8.5% and Gus Lyseights changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robin Aris becomes +5.1% and for Gus Lyseights becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Robin Aris is +3.9% and for Gus Lyseights is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robin Aris: 86%, Gus Lyseights: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robin Aris: 76%, Gus Lyseights: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gus Lyseights: 1,511, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Robin Aris: 1,329, level confidence: 76%.