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Alex Hartley v Fred Cooke (Thu 11 Feb 2010)

Match won by Alex Hartley. Result: 17-15,19-17,13-15,15-5.

Starting level for Alex Hartley: 2,954, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Fred Cooke: 1,802, level confidence: 52%.
Alex Hartley to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Fred Cooke.

Alex Hartley won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Hartley played 24% better than Fred Cooke in this match.

As Alex Hartley has played below his allowed range at 2,378, his level reduction is 6.1% before damping. On the assumption that Alex Hartley would normally have been playing at level 2,754 (based on typical behaviour), Fred Cooke played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 8.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Hartley changes to -3.7% and Fred Cooke changes to +8.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Hartley becomes -2.3% and for Fred Cooke becomes +4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Alex Hartley is -1.7% and for Fred Cooke is +3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Hartley: 80%, Fred Cooke: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Hartley: 70%, Fred Cooke: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alex Hartley: 2,900, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Fred Cooke: 1,860, level confidence: 63%.