Nick Henderson v Mark Dunn (Tue 08 May 2012)
Match won by Mark Dunn. Result: 7-15,6-15,15-13,7-15.
Starting level for
Nick Henderson:
1,577, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mark Dunn:
2,524, level confidence: 58%.
Mark Dunn to win as he is currently playing
60% better than Nick Henderson.
Mark Dunn won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 66% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Dunn played
38% better than Nick Henderson in this match.
In this case, Mark Dunn played at level 2,273 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mark Dunn would normally have been playing at level 2,367 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Henderson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Dunn changes to 0% and Nick Henderson changes to +2.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Dunn becomes 0% and for Nick Henderson becomes +2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Mark Dunn is 0% and for Nick Henderson is +1.3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Dunn: 76%, Nick Henderson: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Dunn: 71%, Nick Henderson: 83%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Henderson:
1,595, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Mark Dunn:
2,520, level confidence: 71%.