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Keith Timms v Phil Yerby (Thu 11 Feb 2010)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 15-12,15-10,15-11.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 5,452, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Phil Yerby: 2,251, level confidence: 60%.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 142% better than Phil Yerby.

Keith Timms won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 43% better than Phil Yerby in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Keith Timms was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,517 and 5,452 without affecting his level.

As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 3,359, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 4,487 (based on typical behaviour), Phil Yerby played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -2.5% and Phil Yerby changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -1.4% and for Phil Yerby becomes +5.2%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 1.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is -1.1% and for Phil Yerby is +3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 85%, Phil Yerby: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 65%, Phil Yerby: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 5,387, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Phil Yerby: 2,335, level confidence: 60%.